Trade recap for October 5th: Yawn

I know I’ve been getting a ton of comments on each post throughout the trading day most days as readers discuss stocks. Would anyone be interested in me hosting a chat on this website? The likely program would be Parachat (used by InvestorsUnderground and TimAlerts). I would charge $9.99/month to cover the cost of hosting the chat and to compensate me for moderating and contributing to it. Please leave a comment with your thoughts.

I sold EPGL at $0.002 after making the above video.

Daily profit: ($99.00)

Disclosure: No positions. I have a disclosure policy.

Watchlist for October 4th: Not much

Nothing exciting on watch. Seriously. This time I’m not just being lazy; I found no exciting setups.

LVCA has a nice breakout on Friday but I don’t play OTC BB breakouts. It is a pump (see the comments for details).

lvca

DYAI also a pump I think, on short watch, although I think it has another big up day in it. (Thanks to Preston for bringing it up in the comments below. I added it to the watchlist in response to his comments.)

dyai

Here is a chart of GSAE for posterity.

gsae

Disclosure: No positions. I have a disclosure policy.

ONCY's lesson: Don't sell a stock if it is banging the offer

I messed up an easy trade on ONCY today. Lesson: if a stock keeps trading only at the offer (ask) and not at the bid, and the bid keeps rising, it is probably going to continue to go up.

oncy_multiday

+    BOT    1,300    ONCY    false    Stock (SCM)    3.220    USD    SMART    09:32:08        6.50
+    SLD    1,300    ONCY    false    Stock (SCM)    3.300    USD    ISLAND    09:33:20        6.50

ONCY

Here is a screenshot of the time and sales from right before I sold (I sold at 9:33:20). It actually was not just printing at the offer, unlike how I remembered, but it was at least balanced between bid and offer and the bid did not drop after hitting 3.26.

Daily profit: $91.00

Weekly profit: $3583.25

Disclosure: No positions. I have a disclosure policy.

Update on trading Tim Sykes' system

My fairly consistent profits from trading using Tim Sykes’ system have continued. Despite some sketchy trading, my profits have been helped by the plethora of pump and dumps recently and me scalping TimAlerts for quick profits (in fact, my recent trade of RODM nearly paid for the TimAlerts lifetime subscription that I bought a year ago). I thank Tim for all he has taught me and I heartily recommend his Pennystocking Part Deux DVD to anyone who wants to learn how I and he trade stocks.

tim_profit_small
(click chart to enlarge)

Note that the profit on this chart does not include the profit from my watchlist longs, which are definitely in the style of Tim Sykes. As I write this I have accumulated $1770 in profits in that strategy over the last 40 days. See my recent detailed report on how successful those trades have been.

If you like more detailed statistics, here is a histogram of my profit margin on Sykes-type trades:

profit_histogram_small
(click chart to enlarge)

Unfortunately I am not the most experienced with creating histograms in Excel. No trades fall below the -16% return bin, but eight trades generated more than 22% profit (they are just thrown into the 22% bin; the largest profit margin was 51%).

Disclosure: See my disclosure policy.

Trade recap for September 30th: Pumpty dumpty sat on a wall

The next pumped up OTC stock that is due for a fall: Nutra Pharma Corp (OTC: NPHC). I shorted this today and covered for an easy $776.65. I had a few other small trades today. Tim Sykes has a good post on Nutra Pharma.

IB trades:
+    BOT    900    VSR    false    Stock    5.400    USD    ISLAND    09:30:10        4.50
SLD    900    VSR    false    Stock    5.45    USD    ISLAND    09:31:50        4.50
+    BOT    400    HOKU    false    Stock (NMS)    4.105    USD    SMART    09:41:11        2.00
+    SLD    400    HOKU    false    Stock (NMS)    4.110    USD    SMART    09:41:51        2.00
+    SLD    10,000    NPHC    false    Stock (OTCBB)    .830    USD    SMART    09:46:35        41.50
SLD    500    NPHC    false    Stock (OTCBB)    0.8300    USD    SMART    09:46:35        2.08
BOT    1,500    NPHC    false    Stock (OTCBB)    0.7370    USD    SMART    09:51:14        5.53
+    BOT    5,000    NPHC    false    Stock (OTCBB)    .750    USD    SMART    09:52:07        18.75
BOT    4,000    NPHC    false    Stock (OTCBB)    0.7500    USD    SMART    09:52:07        15.00

Daily profit: $781.20

Disclosure: No positions. I have a disclosure policy.

Making money by buying stocks on my watchlist

I have netted $1,776.12 buying stocks on my watchlist since I started this blog. I have learned to buy stocks on simple breakouts by following what Tim Sykes teaches in his Pennystocking Part Deux DVD (and his other DVDs), although I do have my own style when playing these. While this is not large relative to my account or other profits, it is impressive because I am generally very poor at buying stock. I am satisfied with my gains so far and if I can keep generating such nice profit margins I may look to increase my position size. I have tweeted some of these trades (like my great trade of GSAE yesterday).

watchlist_longs_profit
(click chart for full-size chart)

Following are some details on these trades:

Average profit: 4.63%
Weighted average profit: 3.02%
Winning trades (%): 86.7%
Normal position size: $5,000.00

Ticker Type Shares Open Date Price Position Close Date Price Profit ($) Profit (%)
AXL long 1000 8/19/2009 $5.72 $5,717.00 8/19/2009 $5.99 $268.00 4.69%
RTK long 2000 8/19/2009 $2.44 $4,870.00 8/19/2009 $2.47 $60.00 1.23%
XIDE long 700 8/24/2009 $7.74 $5,414.50 8/24/2009 $7.85 $77.00 1.42%
VG long 1000 8/26/2009 $2.29 $2,288.00 8/26/2009 $2.58 $287.00 12.54%
HLCS long 2500 8/31/2009 $1.85 $4,617.50 8/31/2009 $2.08 $570.00 12.34%
HLCS long 1000 8/31/2009 $2.21 $2,205.00 8/31/2009 $2.30 $90.00 4.08%
SVA long 200 9/1/2009 $11.60 $2,319.00 9/1/2009 $12.02 $84.00 3.62%
GTN long 200 9/8/2009 $1.24 $247.00 9/8/2009 $1.28 $8.00 3.24%
EXXI long 4000 9/8/2009 $1.49 $5,940.00 9/8/2009 $1.40 ($360.00) (6.06%)
VVUS long 400 9/10/2009 $12.65 $5,058.00 9/10/2009 $12.68 $15.20 0.30%
IVAN long 2500 9/11/2009 $1.93 $4,812.50 9/11/2009 $1.86 ($175.00) (3.64%)
RAME long 4000 9/15/2009 $1.14 $4,540.00 9/15/2009 $1.26 $501.80 11.05%
YRCW long 800 9/24/2009 $5.99 $4,793.60 9/24/2009 $6.08 $74.12 1.55%
GSAE.pk long 1000 9/29/2009 $1.08 $1,075.00 9/29/2009 $1.32 $240.00 22.33%
VSR long 900 9/30/2009 $5.41 $4,864.50 9/30/2009 $5.45 $36.00 0.74%

Here is my reasoning for each of the above trades:

AXL    looking for continuation on strong breakout on (so-so) financing news — was up 117% previous day; opened red like market and I bought on red/green cross; got stopped out (was using too-tight mental stop); hit hod of 7.11

RTK    looking to short, opened red with market, but bought on red/green cross; sold with too-tight stop; was up on puffy news previous day 86%; hod was 2.93

XIDE    solid one-day breakout, bought on second up-day on red/green 3 min after open, sold as it fell off of 7.96 hod

VG    up from 0.50 in two days, showed big 50% gap up on day three and I bought right after open and sold quickly (was filled only 1k out of 2.3k shares due to routing issues)

HLCS    opened red (mkt gapped down 1%) then went green, had great breakout chart, made breakout previous day, bought (late) as it went green and broke previous day’s high of 1.78–went over $3 for a good chunk of time

HLCS    opened red (mkt gapped down 1%) then went green, had great breakout chart, made breakout previous day, bought here as it re-broke hod

SVA    was up from 7 to 9.7 previous day on 10x normal volume on some good news, strong throughout day; bought as it broke morning’s highs 2 minutes after open (slow due to computer issues, should have bought at 11.30), sold as it showed weakness; would’ve played larger but was distracted by computer issues

GTN    watched for big breakout above 1.14, but gapped above that to 1.24, tried waiting until it showed strength, should’ve just gotten in around 1.22; when I tried to get in I only got a tiny fill so I got out; it hit 1.48 less than 20 minutes later

EXXI    was big runner on earnings previous Friday, opened red, went long on green/red, got out after it failed at 5 cents below previous close; good trade

VVUS    was up big previous day on drug news, bought on breakout above 12.50, previous day’s high, was slow (even though I had alarm and order set), not good entry, so I got out quickly; also, it had been choppy the previous day

IVAN    significant break of 1.85, broke it in pre where I bought it 3 minutes before open (a little late too considering the break) broke my rule of not trading pre-market thinking it is meaningful for market … should’ve waited for open where I would’ve ween its price action suck and wouldn’t have bought

RAME    saw alerted by IL in GOTS chat (now Investors Underground chat) he was watching for hod test; looked at multiday chart and saw hod of 1.12 was a significant technical breakout. Bought when it broke hod and started printing 1.13s, sold 20 minutes later on a bit of weakness

YRCW    broke out above huge $6 mark in pre-market, opened at 5.90, bought right as it looked to break 6, it took a minute longer, but then it did and hid a hod of 6.20, I sold as it fell off that; later went below 5.70

GSAE.pk    huge run chart from .30 to .90 in two days, bought early in morning as it broke morning’s high of 1.05 and sold as it looked like it was fading a little; 5 minutes later it hit a high of $1.79 and quickly dropped off of there

VSR    gapped up on news above technical resistance at 5.20, bought right out of open (waiting for a tiny bit of upward momentum), hit hod of 2.70 then quickly dropped, I sold quickly as it tanked

Disclosure: No positions. I have a disclosure policy.

Watchlist for September 30

GSAE – Hot pink sheet stock with a huge move on ever-increasing volume. I like this as a long on strength or short on weakness. My prediction last night of a 30%+ gain today was correct and I nailed it for 22% (I also tweeted my trade). Tomorrow it should fade. There will be no shares to short, though.

gsae

ASTC – Up on earnings and its desire to “explore strategic alternatives” (it is putting itself up for sale). It held strong just above $3 most of the day. A break below $3 (hmm, a whole number …) would make it a nice short. Otherwise it may be a decent long on strength for follow-through from today’s momentum.

astc

RODM – Nice 52 week highs today. Way too slow and choppy for my taste.

rodm

MSHL – Top short watch that may actually be borrowable. It spiked big this morning but closed below its open and right above $1. Will be an easy short on the break of $1.

mshl

MSHL_intraday

Disclosure: No positions. I have a disclosure policy.

Trade recap for September 29th

Video trade recap. Lesson for the day: “If you are not super-dooper-dooper fast, do not trade stocks based on news.”

BOT    1,000    AMLM    false    Stock (OTCBB)    1.2600    USD    SMART    09:32:46        5.00
SLD    1,000    AMLM    false    Stock (OTCBB)    1.2900    USD    SMART    09:34:02        5.00
BOT    1,000    GSAE    false    Stock    1.07    USD    SMART    09:38:00        5.00
SLD    1,000    GSAE    false    Stock    1.32    USD    SMART    09:41:59        5.00
+    BOT    200    MNKD    false    Stock (NMS)    10.900    USD    SMART    11:32:47        1.00
+    SLD    200    MNKD    false    Stock (NMS)    10.700    USD    SMART    11:33:51        1.00

Daily profit: $218.05

Disclosure: No positions. I have a disclosure policy.