Watchlist for the third seventh day in January

MDCE, ALTO, MHYS – Just reminders that pump quickly turns to dump and that buying these things is uber-risky. Too bad ALTO didn’t go up another day and I couldn’t find shares to short.

mdce

alto

mhys

DEAR – Hmm, low-float beaten-down bank trading (even after its big run today on earnings news) at under 1/3 of net tangible asset value? This could keep moving. If I were a swing-trader I might buy some and hold for a week or two. Good thing I’m not!

dear

CTZN – Buy buy buy (if it hits $0.70 with volume). I probably won’t play it due to lower volume.

ctzn

TONE – Long on red/green or jump off consolidation.

tone

HAFC – Way overdone move on rumors of another bank looking to buy a stake. I am short-biased but will play it small if I do short.

hafc

ACLS –  just off of 52 week highs.

acls

Disclosure: No positions in any stock mentioned. This blog has a terms of use and you can find all my disclaimers and disclosures there as well; my full terms of use is incorporated by reference into this post.

0 thoughts on “Watchlist for the third seventh day in January”

  1. I’ve spent the last several hours reading filings on DEAR. I like it as a trade, it may have some more legs in it. I’ll probably play it tomorrow if I think the price action is still favorable

    Their NPA’s are wretched (12.80%), but the rate of growth in their NPAs has slowed considerably. I do like they cleaned out their intangibles and goodwill.

    I absolutely hate their Regional exposure (basically just Detroit alone), but I suppose that’s a big reason why it got so cheap in the first place

    I don’t think I’d want to hold into another quarter for sure though, their real estate portfolio looks to be very bad and they barely just barely meet adequately capitalized status.

    A rough eyeball of their numbers gives me a Texas Ratio north of 200%, pretty bad.

    (127.5 NPA/(51 StockEquity+25 LoanLossReserves-23.4 Other Real estate)

    Oof

  2. Yeah Tasty,

    I was honestly surprised when this one popped. Stealing Jim Mora’s famous line: “Dearborn?? Don’t talk to me about Dearborn! You kidding me? Dearborn?!?” Nevertheless, I’m sorry I missed that trade yesterday.

    The only positive I can see is that net income turned green this quarter and, as you say, NPAs have stabilized. Otherwise Cigar butt all the way.

    1. Or they are just manipulating the stock to screw people who try to front-run the pumps. Who knows. There’s a reason why I say trying to buy pumps is risky!

      1. well that and any reasonable fundamental value of a pump is usually well below current price.

        Gravity in essence is against longs.

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