Watchlist for 11/12

No graphs tonight. I’m beat after doing some more work on my DVD.

SMI – No play. Up on news that it will not be destroyed by litigation. Lack of intraday move suggests it has found the right price.

CHLN – Meh. Earnings. Gap and crap a little today, but I don’t anticipate any big moves.

NCST – Buyout.

NLST, SNIC – Nice breakout. Watch.

NANO – Broke out today. Might be nice tomorrow on green.

SNVP – What a waste of a beautiful pump. I heard Schwab had shares. Was beautiful morning panic on the gap down open.

Disclosure: No positions in any stocks mentioned in this post. I have a disclosure policy and you can find all my disclaimers there as well; those disclosure & disclaimers are incorporated by reference into this post.

0 thoughts on “Watchlist for 11/12”

  1. AMD looks the best.

    By the way, I apologize for that ill-timed comment on SNIC yesterday. After I listened to your re-cap this morning and looked at the time of trade vs. comment you might have said “no shit” or something like that.

  2. Nope, I just don’t feel comfortable buying these yet, I’m trying to get a feel for it. I only have one day trade as well so trying to spend it wisely.
    If it holds up and crosses 1mil shares I may go short, very simalar to the pattern yesterday, I may have just missed it though, it broke at 9.98 and volume looks to be fading.

  3. NANO
    “Hope you played it. I had no excuse. Either on the break of yesterday’s highs or on green it was a no-brainer.”

    Yep you are right, missed opportunity that was well worth a day trade. Beautiful chart with several easy buy in spots.

  4. Good play, I was to late to the party on that one.
    Just look at the charts on NANO, NLST and PLA, I guess that’s why I’m so biased to short HOD breaks. They look so predictable to me. NANO was about 800K shares traded and I should’ve entered, kinda busy at work trying to leave at lunch so not concentrating hard enough, trading really takes a lot out of me when I’m in, watching every tick.

  5. I remember a while back on CAPS you expressed some interest in shorting both 3x bull and 3x bear ETFs. A large, unidirectional move in the underlying index over many days will cause you to lose money if you do this.

    What do you think of a strategy where one puts 75% of his money into the index, uses 25% of his money to short the 3x bull, and rebalances daily? I feel like this would reduce the riskiness of the strategy a lot while still capturing the decay of the 3x ETFs

    1. This would increase risk. Anyway, with this strategy there is a very low profit margin. It would not meet the cost of capital, especially considering you need to do continuously adjust your hedges. It is not worth the risk as a real world strategy IMHO. But it is fun from an academic perspective.

  6. inability of sellers to drive KNDI back below 4 and large bids at 4 are very bullish. I’d probably re-buy if I didn’t want to do other things (ie work on my DVD)

  7. In December I will, wife still in school. SHe is transferring to the University of Houston end of this semester. SHe has two semesters left for her masters in accounting, she still only has two B’s, I don’t know what she sees in me. lol
    I’ve picked up contracts through 2010 so it’s going pretty good, not selling my house yet though. My business can be a brutal one at times.

  8. In regards to the ultra ETFs:

    If you rebalance daily, as in Dan’s sample strategy, your expected return is exactly zero. Ignoring slippage and commissions, you would neither make nor lose any money. If you want to lower the risk of the strategy, you would want to diversify into several pairs of ultra ETFs that track indices with the lowest amount of correlation. Profit margins on this strategy are fairly low, though it should easily beat cost of capital.

    1. It depends what your cost of capital is. Plus, you do have the risk of a forced buy-in on your short position. Last I checked most of the leveraged ETFs were hard to borrow.

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